We have less than a fifth of California's population, but more than 1 1/2 times as many coronavirus deaths

Hi Adam, thank you so much for posting this. I did not know Pat O’Neill very well, but she was a wonderful lady and one of those great community glue people who make neighborhoods work. I keep thinking that in normal times, she would have had one of those grand, crowded wakes, that bring a whole neighborhood out to remember someone. She and her family deserved to have that.

Thanks again.

but the DHS analysis indicated a minuscule half-life of SARS-CoV-2 when exposed to sunlight, and it's also significantly heat-averse when you start getting into the 80s/90s °F.

Obviously that's irrelevant when it comes to people hanging around and infecting each other indoors.

But it does become an issue when it comes to the virus hiding on outdoor doorknobs, benches, trash cans, people's hands when they go outside, spit on the sidewalk that can be tracked into someone's house on shoes, etc.

So CA has a huge advantage over MA in that respect.

In Holyoke, the highest number of deaths at any nursing home in the country, is a terrible scandal and tragedy. I hope it gets properly investigated and the true facts come out. If that was my granddad I'd be beyond angry.

Today's stats show that Massachusetts has 1,005 patients on ventilators - the sickest of the sick - compared to 1,181 in California.

First -- its Fake News that there are 1005 patients on Ventilators -- there are a total of 1005 patients in the ICU -- not by any means all on Ventilators -- Google Boris Johnson, UK PM [in ICU for a couple of days on Oxygen but never on a Ventilator]

Look at the MA reports about COVID-19 related Deaths or just look at the headlines:

• More than 70 veterans dead in ‘horrific’ coronavirus outbreak at Holyoke Soldiers’ Home

  -- read that as a WWII Vets home -- avg age 90

• three more died at the Chelsea Soldiers' Home -- Twenty-three residents have now died in total, with 17 of those veterans testing positive for the disease.

  -- again 80's +

• 30 Deaths, Another 86 Positive Tests: Nearly All Belmont Manor Nursing Home Residents Have The Coronavirus

Overall -- More than 1/2 of all of the COVID-19 related deaths in MA have been associated with Nursing Homes and similar facilities caring for sick old folks

MA COVID-19 daily data dump [04/28/20]:

1. 98.1% of Deaths with "underlying conditions"
2. 59% Deaths with a Previous Hospitalization* [only 11% deaths known to not have had previous hospitalization -- nearly 30% unknown]
3. Age of Death:
1. 63% of deaths were people 80+
2. 20% of the deaths were people from 70 to 80 years old
3. 10% of the deaths were people from 60 to 69 years old
4. 5% of deaths were people below 60 years old

For Reference purposes:
the average Life Expectancy of someone in MA is just about 80

For the 58,844 people who died in 2017[2017 MA Mortality Report is the latest available] *
2017 Age at Death:

1. 22,663 were at least 85 years old
2. 22,991 were from 65 to 84 pears old
3. 9516 were from 45 to 64 years old
4. 3674 were 45 or younger

So the 65+% population was responsible for 77+% of the total deaths

On an average day in 2017: 161 deaths occurred of which:

1. 35 cancer
2. 33 heart disease
3. 16 respiratory condition
4. 7 Stroke
5. 3 Diabetes
6. 4 Infectious Disease [including the Flu and pneumonia]
7. 13 injury
1. 7 poisonings including opioid overdoses
2. 2 Suicides
3. 1 automobiles
4. and a bit less than 1 from firearms

For comparison -- since early April an average of somewhat more than 100 people have died each day from COVID-19 and contributing co-morbity factors versus the 98 who died daily in 2017 from essentially the same "co-morbidity factors" without the COVID-19

Obviously -- we will have to wait until all the tallies are in for 2020 to see the full impact of the COVID-19 on Life Expectancy and total fatalities in MA

However -- perhaps part of why we have such a "high" death rate for the COVID-19 [4.5 deaths for every 10,000 residents] --- might have something to do with the fact that we have a lot of sick old people -- particularly a lot of sick old people clustered together in places such as the Holyoke Soldiers Home or even the Belmont Manor

Further -- By the way of comparison -- two countries in Europe with about the same population as CA:
Poland 11273 cases 524 deaths
Ukraine 9410 cases 239 deaths

So -- Possibly being close to the radiation from Chernobyl is beneficial ????

*
Summary from:
2017 mortality data and statistics for the 2017 calendar year: Massachusetts Deaths Highlights

• From 2016 to 2017, the age-adjusted mortality rate for Massachusetts residents changed from 668.9 deaths per 100,000
• The average life expectancy of Massachusetts residents was 80.6 years in 2017
• Every day in 2017, there were on average 161 deaths, which included 35 cancer deaths, 33 heart disease deaths, 16 respiratory condition deaths, and 13 injury deaths (Figure 7). Of the 13 injury deaths, 7 deaths were due to poisonings, which include opioid overdoses.
• Poisonings, which include opioid overdoses, continued to be the largest cause of injury deaths in 2017, however the injury death rate due to poisoning was 35.4 per 100,000 in 2016 and 33.8 per 100,000 in 2017 (Table 18).

There are so many damn ways to parse the data, and the limited testing combined with the asymptomatic aspect of the virus make it hard to get a real sense of where we are.

It might be helpful to look at the infections and deaths by facility. What ones are able to limit spread, and what ones are not. Staffing, physical configuration, use of PPE, anything that might indicate what are best practices. I wonder if the residents are being brought to the hospital soon enough, which affects the survival rate.

One thing for sure, this is not "just another flu." We've never had a seasonal flu that caused so many nursing home residents to die.

The nursing home deaths are also a result of a complete lack of early interest in providing/funding adequate protective gear to their employees - who are largely underpaid and not nearly as numerous as they should be.
An argument could be made that this due to our cultural attitude of ignoring the older population and unconsciously wishing that they would just go away.

A friend of mine suggests MA has tested at twice the rate of CA. So I think that has something to do with it. We're also on the whole Northeast Corridor, in which every coastal state from here to MD has been hit. Lastly, there's some suspicion that the East Coast was seeded NOT with a strain from Asia, but Europe, and that this strain is more lethal.