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No Brainer: If she runs, Ayanna Pressley becomes Mayor
By Douglas Bennett on Fri, 04/12/2013 - 11:12am
If Ayanna Pressley runs for Mayor as reports are now suggesting that she may, she will undoubtably be the next Mayor.
It's a no brainer. Number one, the race is wide open for a major female candidate to run and win. There are ten men who running. Many people do vote based on gender. For instance, in the race to replace Jack Hart in the State Senate, many pundits believe that some of Nick Collin's votes will be siphered away by fellow Southie native Maureen Dahill which will allow Linda Dorcena Fory to be able to walk into office. However, I believe with two women running against Collins, the only male in the Democratic primary, many women will split their vote, while many men will vote for Collins. I'm not saying it is right, but it is a reality that gender politics is a determining factor for how many people vote in elections.
The same factor would be in effect with the Mayoral Race if Pressley enters. Pressley would win the preliminary election in a landslide. Let me repeat that... landslide. Pressley would be the only female in the race and I guarentee she could end up with a big plurality victory and huge momentum going into the Finals. In fact, because it would be her and 10 other males running. I would not be suprised if she won the September 24th Prelminary Election by 20 percent.
Additionally, I believe that Reverend Eugene Rivers is wrong saying that Boston's candidates of color are not ready to stage a successful mayoral race. How many people said this about Barack Obama before he ran for President? Pressley topped the ticket with 37,532 votes. That's 2000 more than Arroyo and 5000 more than Connolly. Plus, what if Reverend Rivers said this to Mel King in 1983? This type of insinuations by our local leaders only serves to discourage others and makes me believe that there is some sort of poitical calculation behind such statements as if Reverend Rivers is instead supporting someone else and is afraid that someone like Pressley could upset his plans.
Any concern about Pressley entering having an effect on Arroyo's base is not accurate. I believe that they each have strong bases, but from different sections of the populace. I believe that both candidates will be finalists if they enter and as I mentioned in a previous post, if Pressley wins and Arroyo does not then he will clearly be the favorite for the 7th Congressional Seat whether Michael Capuano runs for Governor or not.
To me, this is a no brainer. If Pressley runs, she wins.
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Comments
What's this worth?
This guy is gonna "guarantee" stuff for us? Really? Not exactly someone with his finger directly on the pulse.
I don't disagree she's in good shape, but to say she wins the primary in "a walk" is puffery at it's worst.
She doesn't need $. She has organization.
Ayanna Pressley would raise significant money especially if she enters the race. Money would pour into her campaign. It's easy to discount her, but she still got 5000 more votes than Connolly and 2000 more votes than Arroyo.
I always laugh when people try speculate who got lots of Bullet Votes and who did not.
What I do know is that she has a strong organization who knows how to get out the vote
Remember she finished 12,000 votes ahead of Michael Flaherty, a 2009 Mayoral Finalist. That's a landslide.
Again, the At-Large Council
Again, the At-Large Council race does not allow for those kind of cut and dry vote comparisons. You get four votes. Bullet votes matter.
She was the "save me" candidate. Almost every article about the race, in the Globe, Herald and Phoenix were about her being on the ropes and needing votes. So it stands to reason she was on a lot of ballots alone with Connolly, and on a lot of ballots alone with Arroyo. Essentially borrowing from both bases and making herself look bigger by doing so with a higher vote total. But she can't compete in West Roxbury, Arroyo has won HP+Rozzi several elections, we could say her base are minority districts but Arroyo will do well there, what Union support would she have, thats going Arroyo + Walsh. What substantive achievements could she push? She would have to play the woman angle up. And I'm sure she would try. But its not going to be a one way ticket to the Mayors office because its not that simple. Oversimplification makes her a contender reality does not. Is she good for buzz, absolutely, could she hold up in the next 5 months under a microscope no she can't. You can try and puff her victory up but people who have followed local elections for years know that is not a real indicator. Mayoral races mean you have to win individuals. Not simply be an add on to a ballot. She cobbled together two bases in order to show up first. The dynamics of a Mayoral race are different. Again I think she's smart, she knows this, and she'll wait.
At risk for her is where does she go if she loses. You keep saying Capuanos seat but you're forgetting that requires him A)Winning the Primary. B)Winning the actual race. And considering he got demolished in the US Senate race, thats all far from certain. Unless I'm mistaken he keeps his seat until then, he doesn't have to give it up. Thats two years out. Flats can tell you how quickly a loss can devastate your stock. If she loses everything she has now, potential, stature, is all gone. If she stays she's a frontrunner for President of the Council and always will be a frontrunner for open seats. Its not her time.
If Capuano runs for Governor, he gives up his Congressional seat
If Capuano runs for Governor, then he has to give up his Congressional seat.
I think those that don't want her to run are afraid that she would beat the other mostly white middle-aged men running against her.
Just my 2 cents.
Perhaps some feel that way.
Perhaps some feel that way. What I'm saying is there are plenty of reasons why she isn't the titan you're making her out to be if she enters. And you haven't addressed any of them.
He wil not win if he runs for
He wil not win if he runs for Governor
You're Reaching
Its not that cut and dry. She has almost no money in her bank account. She is from Chicago, and that WILL be an issue with voters, she missed a record number of days from work and went MIA, which is why she was in so much trouble heading into re-election. I understand she used her mothers death as a valid excuse and it is one too a point. However we are talking about MONTHS of being MIA not just several days. Her base DID NOT appreciate her begging John Connolly for an endorsement and her vote total looks padded. She was the only woman in a race where you could vote for four. She is a quintessential 3rd 4th vote. She didn't get a lot of bullets. People were concerned with "saving" her. She was the only woman and only black candidate at large.
A Mayoral race is different no one will be voting too save her. Articles will not be written about the importance of saving her. And the voters DO NOT just vote based on gender. Otherwise you would most likely be looking at a Hillary Clinton 2008 victory. Shes smart she has made the analysis and thats why you haven't heard a peep from her until this far into the game.
Hey, if theres one thing Doug
Hey, if theres one thing Doug Bennett knows, it's elections.
google him, hell search this site
"ciphered away"
That is the only reason Moe is running against Nick. She wants to teach the "old" Southie a lesson.
This isn't news. I love
This isn't news.
I love UHub for real news with snarky asides, funny news, serious news, big news, and small news.
I don't want to read badly reasoned, facile, unsupported, eye-roll-worthy opinion pieces here.
That's why we have The Herald.
Please don't invite this writer back.
Stop the whinning if you're gonna write annonymously
If I was not making a credible argument, then you probably wouldn't be whinning. FYI
like a username isn't anonymous
It's just so much easier to attribute ideas to a particular person when they post as "Sonic the Hedgehog," or "I love Brighton", right?
Yes, if it's a reg'ed name they use all the time.
Yes it is. What, did you fail internets101?
When someone uses a reg'ed name, other readers can follow their line of thought through multiple replies without having to figure out which of a dozen "anons' just said what. Over time they can make personal determinations of how savvy/knowledgable that user is about a particular topic. Anons have nothing to lose by being full of shit - they have no rep to ruin. But they can't expect to be taken as seriously or as honestly as reg'ed users.
This isn't the comments section of the Herald or the Huff Post. Real conversations happen here - and some happen over days, months, years. A big part of this site's value comes from the large established community of distinct voices - from all the neighborhoods and all backgrounds. When a certain topic comes up, people will even ask for a particular user's input. You think your opinion is worth listening to? Back it up by adopting a reg'ed name - even Sonic the Hedgehog, if that floats your boat. Then the next time you have something to say, people will be more likely to pay attention.
Unprofessional
Any seasoned writer knows their work will be critiqued. The responses are quite vicious, and unprofessional. It was the same thing with the posts on the Pirate Radio station thread.
Adam gets put to task for his posts quite often, and he's never stooped to name calling and hostility. This hostility is not why I come to UniversalHub. I question if you are a good fit here.
No way
The only thing remotely related to reality in Doug's entire post is the first one and a half words of the title. And the line "votes will be siphered away" is an instant classic.
Formatting
This formatting is annoying. The key ideas do not need to be bolded, italicized, and highlighted- we are all adults who are capable of reading. It reads like a sales pitch, or work instructions for lazy morons.* It looks unprofessional and condescending.
*I used to work with lazy morons, and the only way to get them to read the important parts of anything was to offset it in bold, italics, or underline.
wicked bad gramma too
i know, right?
She is not running for mayor
She is not running for mayor she is trying to scam people in donating to her before she annouces she will run for city council. She doesn't drive and she is from Chicago. She is a phony and everyone knows she is being set up to run for US Congress. This city should be ashamed of themselves for voting her in!
if you're gonna post annonymously, then don't trash her
If you're gonna trash her, have some courage and at least use a "pseudonym" or your real name. It makes you come across as fearful that she actually could win.
Second, any money she raises whether it's for Council or Mayor, she can't use for Federal Races (ie U.S. Rep)
I'm not saying she's not running for Congress. All I did was write an op-ed on some basic facts. If she runs for Mayor, she'll win because the numbers favor her.
Ayanna Pressley would be the the first woman to enter the contest and probably the only one. She is also a strong candidate from the communities of color.
When she ran At-Large in 2009, she ran on the fact that she was the only woman in the field. And it helped her significantly because many women wanted to have a voice on a council that until that point had only one woman, Maureen Feeney.
Elections are about addition. One vote plus one vote = two votes. If she runs, she wins. Even if she doesn't, my point is that there is a wide opening for a strong female candidate. If it's not Pressley, it could be Golar Ritchie although her name has not been on the ballot in front of voters since the mid-90s.
Mr. Bennett, You should run
Mr. Bennett,
You should run for district 3 council.
Frank Baker is never around and ripe for the picking, especially with a hard worker like you.
Blaming the messenger
1) I will leave it to the owner of this website to speak his mind, but my understanding is that anyone can post their opinions anytime he or she wants to do so. Few do, so when someone does, as Mr Bennett has, it's seem as odd and/or offensive. I know that people get bent when I post stories. I understand they will look at the poster and judge him/her, sometimes harshly. What I would hope, though, is that the majority, if not all, commenters consider the topic rather than the messenger and address the question at hand, not the motives of the writer. The owner of this website is very adept at providing information/news without anyone questioning his motives or point of view, but I think you're a fool if you think he doesn't have "biases" like anyone else, like you'd find on any other website.
2) Doug, it is great that you have decided to write these types of posts. I would recommend not answering every single commenter, however. Let the conversation flow without getting involved. It is very tempting to read the comments, I know, and to defend yourself. It's a waste of time, though. You'll end up causing yourself a lot of unnecessary stress. Let people criticize you. Obviously, "real" columnists get comments all the time, many that are vulgar, irresponsible, and offensive. I have a very thin skin and take every comment personally. It's useful to read the the criticisms, in case you're missing something important, but to respond just wastes valuable time on your part.