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Could Massachusetts elect a conservative senator?
By adamg on Thu, 11/06/2008 - 8:56am
Stephen Lynch seems to think so. Of course, his ascension to the house of solons would require John Kerry to be appointed Secretary of State or something. But he's got $1-million+ burning a hole in his bank account and running in a special election would mean he gets to stay in the House when he loses, so why not?
On the Republican side, "party leaders and consultants" are actually chatting up Bill Weld. Bill Weld? When did they repeal the residency requirement for running for statewide office?
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Comments
Im hoping for either Tim
Im hoping for either Tim Cahill or Michael Capuano. I think they are both networkers who know everyone without being too out there as to annoy people (Like Barny Frank.)
What's Conservative about War?
You'd think a conservative would want to "save money" or something... meanwhile, Lynch votes to invade Iraq, and was also a supporter of privatizing Social Security Insurance.
Could Mass elect a "conservative" senator? Sure
Is Lynch it? I sure hope not
Lynch is dreaming...
... he couldn't win a statewide office with a 10 million dollar warchest.
But I welcome him trying.
I'd recommend him for ambassador to the Vatican (heh), but nothing where I can vote against him — and no, I've never lived in his district and I don't imagine I ever shall.
Uggghh!!
Lynch would be an absolute disaster as a State Senator for the afore-mentioned reasons, and the fact that he's totally against a woman's right to choose whether or not to abort an unwanted pregnancy. No go!
elsewhere, Lynch would be a Republican
In any other region of the country, Lynch would be a Republican. The only way Lynch wins an election for US Senator is if his Democratic opponent does not expose his voting record. Easy pickings. Kerry beat Beatty 70-30, why does Lynch think he has a prayer?
Well....
This:
is a good question, Anonymous.
To be fair it wasnt just a
To be fair it wasnt just a conservative versus a liberal it was a long time well heeled incumbant with lots of money, and a massive structure of email lists and volunteers left over from his run for the presidency.
Lynch is 1) A Democrat 2) Wouldnt be running against some entrenched candidate who has held the seat for 20 years.
That being said, I dont like him and would much prefer someone else other then him, but its not impossible. There are some very conservative parts of the state.
It always depends on the field
If Capuano, Frank and Markey run but not Galvin, Cahill or Coakley, Lynch has a good shot. The "progessives" cancel each other out - see the 1992 Democratic primary for Governor. Frank is looking to move up, I've heard. He was running TV ads this election, why?
My money would be on Coakley, in a large field including multiple Congressmen and male state pols, just because of the gender angle.
Coakley vs Healy or Lynch vs. Romney would be very entertaining.
But the best candidate for the Republicans would be Paul Cellucci.
Voter turnout in a special
Voter turnout in a special election would be way down from the normal "first Tuesday in November" election. That changes the race. It means sustained advertising and a good voter turnout effort can swing the election the other way. The overwhelming advantage Democratic candidates have in MA could be lost.
Assuming we get a primary election for an R and D, the Republicans will produce a good candidate but it won't be Lynch, it would be Romney, Beatty, Swift or Cellucci.
The Democrats will produce AG Coakley and Treasurer Cahill, US representatives including Capuano, Lynch, McGovern , and Markey. Lynch does not win this primary.
Romney has a chance of beating any of the Democratic candidates but I doubt he wants the post, especially if he still has designs on the presidency. He would have to serve for four years voting against the will of MA residents, and he would have to campaign as a moderate. Do you think MA residents forget how he trashed us (verbally) when campaigning in Iowa?
Lynch voted no on the bailout bill
which strikes me as a point in his favor, and not necessarily an indication that he is 'conservative'.
I don't think Lynch can win
I don't think Lynch can win a primary vote to produce the Democratic candidate unless his competition includes candidates who are not currently Congressmen. In addition, I I don't think he can beat Coakley if she runs. Lynch's voting record is conservative, more conservative than others in the Mass Congressional Delegation.
If Lynch wins the Democratic nomination for US Senator, he would not be more conservative that the Republican candidate.