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Key Covid-19 predictor skyrockets
By adamg on Thu, 12/03/2020 - 1:55pm
The latest chart of Covid-19 prevalence in sewage flowing through the Deer Island treatment plant shows numbers basically going vertical through Dec. 1 - and far exceeding the numbers reported just before and during the spring Covid-19 surge.
The chart is a predictor of future Covid-19 diagnoses because many people begin excreting the virus before they realize they're infected or even think about getting a test.
The MWRA has samples from the plant, which treats sewage from much of greater Boston, tested by a company that looks for the presence and amount of Covid-19 particles. The numbers are broken out by the MWRA's two main sewer systems, one in the north (in green), the other to south (in orange).
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Comments
Hope that turkey was worth it
Hope that turkey was worth it because a whole lot of people who insisted on gathering in groups indoors because they are slaves to a calendar won’t be able to smell or taste for awhile. And some will have just experienced their last fourth Thursday of November.
yup
It is outstanding how little people are doing right now.
I went to my main office today to get some stuff. I sit in a small building that has no one in it so I dont mind working alone. But I had to go to the main HQ today... I walk in. Everyone's all crowded together around a group of desks. No masks. Not even around their necks.
I got up and walked out.
Not even gonna complain about it.. its clear no one, including management, cares at all. I'm only going to be concerned with my safety has a poz guy. Just stay home and away from people.
Christmas is going to be very grim and the first part of January will be even grimmer, and I don't think people quite understand it yet.
But whateves... I'll be alone for yet another holiday and safe while everyone else is infecting each other because of stupidity. I hope the stocking stuffers and ham were good!
I've heard we aren't supposed
I've heard we aren't supposed to use potty language on this here website but what the efff?
I'm sitting here in my private office with a mask on because I'm expecting someone to stop by any minute to talk to me and you're telling me the rest of the world has just given up on trying?
well
Just you & me Brian havent.
That really surprising
I feel like people at work and out shopping are taking things seriously. It's almost unheard of to see someone in a store without a mask. The fact that the above is happening really blows my mind.
yup
and breaking policy. None of those things shouldn't have happened
Considering the crowd and who was standing there, I'll just say management doesn't care either.
Needless to say I've fired up LinkedIn tonight.
PS - The thing that got me was I saw this yesterday. Then I went home, fired up twitter just in time for all the newsies to share the chart above. If my blood was water, we could have had some tea.
I want to agree
But I went to the bank yesterday. They are really careful about who they let in, but the person watching the door had his mask below his nose.
Mostly, though I see good mask wearing in stores. I am lucky in that I can WFH full time (will probably never go back) so I mostly don't know what they are doing at work.
I keep hearing that the main spreading sources are people at home, but they initial spreader has to get it from someplace.
yeah
For the most part, outside and in stores, people wear masks. I do see the nose people every so often.
The T is the strange duck. I refuse to ride the subway now (buses are OK if the windows are open). Last day was earlier this week. I had someone sit next to me (NEXT to me). No mask.
I got up and walked to another part of the car. He was like "what what"
Chelsea Market Basket, as busy as it is, I've never even seen a maskless or nose person in there. People get it there. But we have to get it in Chelsea. It's so bad here.
For the most part, I see masks everywhere in town except the weirdo white people who hang out in the park near City Hall. Went to get a coffee at dunks this morning, and a whole gaggle of them. No masks, all smoking cigarettes. All within
I just shook my head and said "ignates" under my breath. Its THOSE people who start these stupid superspreaders. When an infected person walks into a store, then is reminded to put a mask on just as they walk in.. in those seconds, they spray. Its all it takes.
Its these people, and the people who INSIST on hanging out with friends, or are 'hooking up' because "its only one person and he told me he was ok" that are causing this. They are why the vaccine is our only hope now.
so brave
So brave of you to mention their race.
Those poor, oppressed whites
Those poor, oppressed whites just can't catch a break...
why?
It's the truth. I call'em as I see'em. I'm a white guy who's real tired of white trash, sh*tting on other races when they, themselves are the actual problem.
Black parts of Dorchester and Roxbury..
Glad to hear about Chelsea. Black parts of Dorchester and Roxbury look pretty well masked up too.
It's almost as though people who have a little experience with the basic struggle to survive, understand that they don't have the luxury to screw around by not wearing masks.
Just gonna leave this right here
hate to bring tweets here but its applicable. And yes I know one tweet. but i've seen a few of these based on airflow and being indoors.
Apply this to an office where mask rules are relaxed. I'm not a scientist but it's not too hard make a connection here. (and of course that masks IN office are better)
“But we’re 6ft apart”
This is something that has driven me nuts about the public understanding of this infectious disease. People take the “6 feet” of distance rule too literally, as if when you are 5’11” apart from someone you risk exposure and a mask will save you, but all of a sudden at 6’1” away you are 100% out of reach of the virus and can not worry about mask compliance. “But we’re 6 feet apart!”
NONE of these precautions are bulletproof. We are stacking precautions one on top of each other to increase protection and lower risk. “Safe” is misleading; “safer” is more accurate.
If you’re in the same room as someone outside of your Covid bubble even at 10’-12’ apart, everyone just wear a mask. Masks are not that uncomfortable or intrusive. Not to mention I see so many people “distancing” an arm’s length apart. No one’s arm is 6 feet long. Masks AND 6 feet as much as is humanly possible.
Dining indoors is risky and since a.) so many restaurants refuse to disclose staff positives and the shifts those people worked and b.) the government isn’t going to shut restaurants down, it’s up to us to be prudent and choose takeout instead.
Shopping should not be casual browsing and aimless lingering, but it should be conducted with a precise plan where you are motivated to get in and get out as efficiently as possible; set a timer so that you don’t get distracted. It’s irresponsible to spend 90 minutes in the grocery store if it is possible for you to cut that down to 30-45 minutes. Don’t go to the mall just to window shop; utilize curbside when possible.
But yeah, cybah, people do actually think that because their table is 6 feet away from another table that they have some sort of Covid force shield that makes them 100% “safe”.
I love our restaurants
I am grateful for one of our restaurants that doesn’t space out the tables but instead out a 12” piece of plexiglass at the top of each booth bench. When you stand up to use the bathroom you are literally standing 6” away from the people in the booth next to you - and we’re all unmasked. We do the token thing of putting on our masks to have the bathroom 20 feet away. On the way to the bathroom, we pass the center island where - because people are seated and eating - no one is masked. Basically, we’re in the restaurant at its normal capacity and ridiculously putting on a mask just to go pee (even though no one else has one on). I actually like it this way..
Has anyone tested the hypothesis...
that the number of people with Covid is constant, but they just shit more now?
Diarrhea...
...is an early symptom of Covid. And when you have it you tend to go a lot. So...I think you may actually be onto something here!
Based on the company's
Based on the company's website they base the poop data on 1 poop per person per day.
Considering turkey gravy was involved in these records I believe the data to be flawed
Once Again: Exponential Growth Is Exponential
People have a really hard time understanding exponential growth. These huge spikes were essentially baked in to our reality back in early October, when we saw a steady daily uptick in cases (which were then between 250-350 per day). Our Commonwealth has been sacrificed for the PrivateWealth of the corporate/ownership class. We have the ability to pay EVERYONE to stay the f--- home for a two or three week period, but we choose half-assed measures (like a curfew - utterly ridiculous theater!) that allow the virus to spread unchecked.
This is not about individual failures, this is an institutional failure, a leadership failure, a systemic failure.
His mishandling of this crisis should put an end to Charlie Baker's political career. Knowing how things work, though, it'll probably propel him to the US Senate.
A "voluntary" curfew
Kind of like speed limits on 128.
At least the State Police try to enforce that once in a while.
But the restaurants and bowling alleys and they fucking casino are all open and everything is hunky dory and Charlie is unconcerned.
And if/when he finally comes around and says "well maybe we should do something" everyone will pat him on the back and tell him what a good job he did.
He was on a plane to Utah in March and got to Salt Lake and turned around. Now he's fiddling while Rome burns and the Democratic Party is ready to erect a statue of him.
Speed Limits
At least there is some logic to speed limits as it relates to physics. There is no sound logic to curfews or (my favorite) requiring people to wear masks when outdoors and not near others.
The problem with BS directives is that it makes people doubt all health advisories, even those which are scientifically based.
It seems really weird to me
It seems really weird to me that you chime in on every covid related story on this site to shoehorn in dubious claims that masks are unnecessary outside. You're not helping.
Because they aren't!
People without masks outdoors in low density areas not spreading COVID. There is no proof whatever that they are. Requiring masks only makes being outdoors sucky only for the justification that it's "doing something". No one with any authority is claiming it is a high risk activity, unlike indoor dining, church services, etc.
Mandating masks for people solo running and cycling is COVID theater.
Bad all the high and medium risk activities (which is to say indoor everything). Until then, let people enjoy the only thing which is actually safe to do.
maybe it’s just easier to say
“wear a mask at all times” rather than “be aware that you may encounter others while outside and be sure to preemptively put a mask on should you need to interact with anyone”
it’s not like the police are enforcing it strictly for people outside so what’s the real problem with the wording?
Wording
What's wrong with just saying, "Wear a mask when you interact with someone"?
It's not as if a conversation suddenly darts out from behind the bushes.
i mean
it’s the same reason a stop sign doesn’t say “just slow down enough to make sure that nobody is crossing your path”
You do know there is a sign for that
Yield
Family Guy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1dtRSU4u74
yes
?
You are correct
But, no one is ever getting in trouble for not wearing a mask outside in low density areas. Public health orders that don’t follow science isn’t ideal, but it is relatively harmless other than being an annoyance to people who are going to rigidly follow the rules.
The bigger issue is that it is patently obvious that masks alone don’t control COVID. Yes, mandate masks indoors and when you can’t avoid others outdoors. But masks are a secondary line of defense. The primary defense is don’t come in contact with others, and for god sakes no restaurants.
Blame the government for not doing enough, they deserve it, but the frank truth is that the American public strongly supports only enough limits to keep the healthcare system from completely collapsing. Maybe the majority supports more, but 60/40 majority decisions aren’t enough to contain COVID and there isn’t the political will to punish offenders.
So we will hum along and kill another 250-500k people nationally. If a vaccine rolls out next year and the healthcare system only partially collapses in the interim, mission accomplished. That’s who we are as a country at this point.
Seems pretty obvious to me
Just like we mandate speed limits even if you're the only car on the road, we mandate mask wearing even if you're the only person around, because it's easier to have a blanket rule that everyone follows as opposed to trying to carve out specific rules for every possible case that are going to be equally nitpicked and are more difficult to enforce.
Just wear the dumb mask. It's not that hard.
There is a mask mandate already
I ride the T most days. One problem is that on the Orange Line there is a 10-20% element that is not fully rational in their thinking (to put it kindly). There are a significant amount of people within Boston who are developmentally disabled, have addiction problems, have psychological problems, or are otherwise not fully rational in their thinking. And many of them spend an above average amount of their time hanging around in public places since they have nothing to occupy their time.
I assume by your "Mandate" talk you suggest we arrest them all and lock them up somewhere? That's...just...great.
Sure
If you really care about COVID transmission, yes, isolate them. They are a 100x bigger risk to public health than someone riding by quickly on a bike without a mask.
I'm not actually suggesting we lock these people up but I am saying government health policy needs to focus on high risk situations and ignore extremely low risk ones.
If people stopping having maskless indoor gatherings COVID would be easy to contain.
Why not just... Y'know...
Why not just... Y'know... Give them masks? Instead of waiting for people to break the rules so we can punish them, instead, make it EASY to comply with the rules?
The problem isn’t that they
The problem isn’t that they would wear a mask except that they were unable to obtain one,
It’s that they have mental health issues. Or just don’t care.
why
do you have to instantly jump to some orwellian scenario? transit / park police could just have masks on hand to give out when needed
It's not consistent
Being consistent would prohibiting group activities. You know, all the places where people are actually traced to having infected others.
Focus on the places COVID is actually being transmitted. Why is that so hard?
I don't disagree with you,
I don't disagree with you about Baker's handling of COVID, but sadly compared to other governors (FL, GA, TX) he's actually pretty good. I guess when the bar is super low, it's easy to pass it. But honestly, there's few governors I'd give a good grade to in handling COVID.
Low Bar Baker!
Regular-height Deval would have been dragged for this; I can tell you why!
Ok, but how will keeping
Ok, but how will keeping everyone home in Massachusetts accomplish anything, when there's still effectively unregulated travel from the rest of the states? We clear our cases in 3 weeks, then one infected person drives up 95 or 84 and we're right back where we were.
We need a national shutdown. NOW.
People have a really hard
Judging by the national debt the last three or four decades, people haven't even figured out geometric growth yet!
It's only a failure if you
It's only a failure if you believe it's the government's job to make everyone lock themselves inside, to sacrifice the economy and freedom of everyone for the sake of a few. If you accept that human civilization has always seen diseases come and go, and that it's not government's to fix everything, then you'll feel less outraged over it.
sage advice
oh wise one. just don’t think about COVID. hadn’t tried that one
Well you know, that whole
Well you know, that whole "promote the general welfare" thing and all...
Because...
...because the economy is doing suuuuuuper well, and dead people have tremendous economic activity and lots of freedoms.
Yeah, saving 276,000 lives,
Yeah, saving 276,000 lives, why should the government waste its time on that?
Charlie Baker
I'm no Charlie cheerleader, but he does not have the ability to pay EVERYONE to stay the f--- home for a two or three week period, or even for one day. That ability resides with the federal government, which has abdicated its responsibility. Give credit where credit is due.
Wait, what?
OK, follow me here.
1. Massachusetts must run a balanced budget. To a first order approximation, our tax revenue has to equal our expenditures.
2. Massachusetts income tax is 5%. That's roughly 2.5 weeks of work for a worker employed all year long.
Ergo, to a first order approximation, paying EVERYONE to stay the f--- home for a two or three week period would cost 100% of the state's budget for the entire year. So yeah, you're technically correct, if we decide to just lay off 100% of all government employees, suspend 100% of all grants and other transfer payments, and outright eliminate all state-subsidized programs in health care, housing, food, and education.
I see guys not wearing masks
I see guys not wearing masks indoors every damn day... walking into buildings with dental offices, retail, storage facilities, you name it: they do not give a flying f*ck. Trump told them we're rounding the corner and it'll be gone after the election. Trump and his cronies mock people who wear masks, mock people with disabilities, mock veterans who were POW's. People idolize Trump and the way he denigrates people and denies science. That's where we're at in this country.
All is well
The chart is mostly green so I'm sure Charlie Baker will reassure us that we don't have to take any further precautions.
Again when are the Powers
Again when are the Powers That Be going to focus on the filthy MBTA and homeless population not wearing masks, not cleaning the trains/seats, etc which would drastically reduce the Covid numbers? No mask worn properly, no ride. Clean the fucking sidewalks already , will ya? Downtown, South End along Mass Ave, etc. Sudewalks are disgusting.