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Number of people hospitalized for Covid-19 in Massachusetts drops below 1,000 for first time since November
By adamg on Fri, 02/19/2021 - 8:24pm
Data released by the Department of Public Health today showed 990 people in Massachusetts hospitals due to Covid-19, the first time the daily number has been below 1,000 since November 26.
Data from the MWRA's Deer Island sewer sampling, which can predict upcoming actual numbers, has dropped as well - to a point where it's below not just the December holiday peak but the peak seen last spring.
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Comments
Early herd immunity
The testing data has been not only useless (other than for the individuals being tested) but it is misleading. Experts (science!) has been telling us all along that the number of those infected versus positive tests are on the order of close to a magnitude (x10). Assuming science and numbers, that means between proven cases, unproven cases, asymptomatic cases and vaccinated we are getting pretty close to the bottom range of herd immunity. Probably 65-70% of Americans have had the virus or the vaccine.
That won't stop the political class and unions from trying to extort every last spendable dollar and reason not to really teach from accepting that science has proven the worst is behind us. Wear masks and be careful but vaccine or not this is over as a real problem by spring. But we will be paying for it through our grandchildren's elderly days.
Maybe
Could also be the result of vaccinating the most vulnerable and most exposed first.
Not to mention occasionally difficult travel conditions due to winter weather keeping that same at-risk but at-home population from getting out no more than necessary.
I'd be interested to know what background you have in science that informs your statements about science that you just made - given all the transmission factors and the constantly changing environment issues as the pandemic matures that you seem to have missed.
Because I'm a PhD epidemiologist and I would never use the words "prove" or "worst behind us" given the variants. I want to believe the worst is behind us, but I would not say that "science has proven" when the landscape is rapidly shifting.
Note that this assessment of regional COVID activity does not miss cases because even asymtomatic individuals shit: https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm
Besides, we still do have
Besides, we still do have people getting infected in large, but decreasing numbers. We'll know we've reached herd immunity when people stop getting infected.
Well ...
I will settle for "small isolated outbreaks making news".
That's what we have with most vaccine-limited diseases.
Shit
Adam's post mentioned that the Deer Island shit showed less Covid than since the spring. So I don't get your final statement. That said, no I am not an Epidemiologist, and an very happy about that fact. Kuddos to you though.
Vaccination alone had not been able to provide the drop in numbers. The numbers Adam referenced are Massachusetts number, not regional or national. We simply have not vaccinated enough souls to make the difference. The hospital numbers are important. I've written from the start that hospitalizations and deaths are real numbers--cases are not.
I offered my opinion. I realize that the great SwirlyOne's opinions are not only fact, they should be engraved into marble, but I am more humble than that. Question my opinion all you want. But since you chose to attack me and my word choices rather than the underlying fact pattern I will take it as that a PhD Epidemiologist could not argue my opinion.
less than half
Where are you getting 65-70% infected from? The estimates I've seen are less than half that, closer to 30%. You're the big fan of of science, tell us the science your numbers are based on.
What happened to the "Super
What happened to the "Super Bowl Surge" that was so widely predicted?
It seems that those "experts" predicting things are once again wrong.
Maybe ...
Or maybe people heeded the warnings this time or something else was at play.
Let's not forget the experts also predicted surges during and after the holidays and they were right about those.
Post Spring Break Surge?
An acquaintance who returned to Boston from Tampa Friday night reports that his plane was packed.
Scare quotes, nice!
Scare quotes, nice!
Super Bowl Surge
might be more an issue in the Tampa Bay area than here, where people were relatively indifferent to the game? I'd be interested to see numbers from that region.
Yeah, who cared about the game here?
It's not as if the Patriots were in it ...
Florida covid dashboard
https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d4...
Killing Granny
Looking at that graph...
If all you look at is Thanksgiving in late November, you see a steady climb three weeks later that seems to justify all the hand wringing Thanksgiving is going to kill Granny in 2020 stay home! that we were subjected to by the "experts".
But what about Christmas/NYE/Super Bowl dates? Three weeks after each of those, there's a continued, steady decline.
Just an idea, but it it possible that it is the natural seasonal shape of a virus? That all the crap we were fed about Thanksgiving was just, well, crap?
What?
What on earth is a "natural seasonal shape of a virus"? Like it magically stops infecting people when you reach a certain arbitrary date on a human-created calendar?