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And just like that, we're out of Lee's Cone of Probability, but there's still high wind, and rain, to consider
By adamg on Tue, 09/12/2023 - 9:10am
Last night, the National Hurricane Center shifted Lee's Cone of Probability a bit to the east, enough to exclude all of eastern Massachusetts, save Cape Cod and Nantucket.
So maybe no direct hit, yay! But as it moves north, Leon, um, Lee, is getting larger, which means we still might face issues with tropical-force winds, as shown in the NHC map above, and torrential rains.
Or not. As the NHC says this morning:
It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts [besides strong surf and rip currents] Lee might have along the Northeastern U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late this week and this weekend. However, since wind and rainfall hazards will extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size, users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days.
H/t Bill Ricker.
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Comments
for the love of cheese
Please take the humidity with you, Lee.
oh so tired of these soupy 70 degree days
Hurricane Vomit
That's our household word for this weather. It seems to get pushed/pulled/dragged up in September when there's lots of storm activity.
Bleh.
(oh and Thanks, Adam - I was about to post this same thing. The Cone of Probability has nothing on the Trilobite of Tempest!)
Hurricane Bob 1991
I remember the weather during HC Bob was soupy and gross, but as soon as Bob skedaddled, the weather turned really nice and dry.
Hopefully Lee (the hurricane) will do the same thing.
Bob happened the day before I
Bob happened the day before I left for freshman year of college. All of my worldly good were loaded in my father's car ready for the drive from Boston to Peoria, Illinois.
I can't wait
Those 19 hours between the end of the humidity and the first frost warning are going to be AMAZING
If we're lucky
If we're lucky, autumn will be on a weekend this year so we can enjoy it.
It actually will
Kind of.
The trough which is pushing down from Canada and pushing it out to sea (a bit) is bringing in cool, dry air. By Thursday afternoon dewpoints should be down into the 50s if not 40s. As the storm becomes extratropical, the wind field will expand, and the fetch of the wind on the west side of the storm will be from the north or NNE, meaning a long fetch over land, so dewpoints should remain in the 40s all weekend.
Might get warm and humid again in a couple of weeks, though, hopefully that is overmodeled and gets kicked elsewhere.
Oh good lord I hate these dew
Oh good lord I hate these dew points. I had my AC on for three days all summer up through Labor Day and even then it would be for about 8 hours max. Even when it was in the 80s and 90. Then this soupy ick showed up and I've been turning the AC and dehumidify functions on constantly. I hate having to do that when it's 70 but I just can't function and sleep when the dew point is so high. I'm willing to take some rogue 80 degree bone dry days over sticky 70 degrees days anytime.
Thats really it
I realized I was running the AC last night because it was sticky.. not that it was hot.
Dry function works well but isn't as good as colder air.
My bedroom on the other hand.. its a nice 65 degrees with a dewpoint of 45% at night.
I have a view of the hills
I have a view of the hills going into Everett from my bedroom so as long as it's below 75 at night and dry I can stick a strong fan in the big sliding window and just drag out the hot air. The whole situation falls apart though when it's very wet outside or it's over 90 for a few days (because the bricks in the building absorb the heat and then off gas at night.) Last year my electric bill was astronomical.
If only….
… I had somewhere to put it.
Right now I’m doubled parked. I need to watch for the meter maid while my 7 day pig roast in the bike and bus lane gets the rest of my attention.
Guess I Picked the Wrong Week...
Just letting you know that I caught and enjoyed the Airplane! reference
Is that an official map?
Or did you draw it with a Sharpie?
It looks like a
baby wheel.
It's really not my fault
And yet I feel like Lee is doing this specifically to me. I'm supposed to be flying up to Bar Harbor for the weekend on Friday. It seems like this thing is just aiming right for me.
I hear Iceland is nice
Maybe change your plans to pull Lee farther away?
It's a thought
Does Cape Air fly to Reykjavik?
Cone of Probability is not real
Nothing is real about the Cone of Probability this far out -- it's like playing the lottery when the stakes are high -- sure if you win {1/few hundred million} it could be life changing -- but the most most likely outcome is you just lose the few $ you bet
Remember that the "Cone of Probability" is only the very simplified summary of the "Spaghetti Plots" coming from the predictions of the various models.
First: Each model is run on a particular Weather Model Supercomputer -- it does its best with the information it has as input at that time and it generates an output predicting the path of the "Eye"
Then: at sometime when all the models have finished running -- all the Spaghetti Plots are combined together in some "Averaging Process" over the paths to generate the "Cone of Probability" of the Eye of the Storm
You could have 1/2 the models predicting the storm to follow the 1938 Hurricane up the CT River Valley and 1/2 the models predicting the storm would pass 100 miles out to sea off the outer Cape. The Cone of Probability would then spread from the Berkshires East a few hundred miles centered over the State House even though none of the models predicted such a path
Wait until Thursday's morning run to see a reasonable guess at how close Lee will be to us in New England
"Logic" and "reason"
Are garbage in = garbage out.
You need to know that.
This post isn't about the cone of probability - it is about how the expanding storm will likely send us some mayhem - amount of mayhem TBD.
The wind impact will likely be noticeable if not nasty and the surge and erosion are certainly going to be an issue regardless of the specifics of the track. There's also Margot to the east of Lee. These are things to consider now when deciding whether to pull your boat for the summer, collect and secure the lawn furnishings, take a road trip this weekend, etc.
Just when I was about to move
Just when I was about to move into a place on Saturday....grr...
cone of probability
The cone of probability is about the likely location of the center of the storm--they are not saying that the center of the storm will definitely be in that area, they're saying that it probably will. For this purpose, that means a 60-70% chance that the storm track will be entirely within the cone, which also means a one-third chance that it won't. That's part of why they keep reminding us not to focus on the exact forecast storm track.
Another reason is that a hurricane isn't even close to being a single point: remember Sandy?
wind probability chart
Yep!
That's why I like to look at the tropical storm force winds probability chart and the rain forecast chart.
Comment deleted
Looks, I realize a few people out there love nothing more than to try to inject their political bon mots into every discussion, but that's why we have Twitter, if you really insist on making everything about women politicians you don't like.
The Cone of Uncertainty
is what we call it in this house, and although we have not yet been hit with a French Toast Alert I did go shopping today. Eggs yes. Bread yes. Milk yes.
The problem with tropical storms...
...is that they're warm and humid. Not French toast weather, unfortunately.
Variations on French Toast Alerts
Hurricane Style. We still gotta eat.
Unless you have AC.
Or like pain perdu.
If you can cook it on a camp stove ...
It counts as both winter and tropical storm food.