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Consequences
At first I thought Lynch would have to give up his seat in Congress, but not with a special election. If he wins - not too likely - he'd probably own the most likely seat to be redistricted out when Mass. loses a seat in the 2010 census. If he loses, he still doesn't have to go back to ironworking. Heh, clever.
Unlikely?
Unless a Kennedy runs, why would Lynch be unlikely? In the dead of winter this special election will be decided by the elderly and the unions. And nobody in this race will have more support from the unions than one of their own. Lynch is one of 3 union card carrying members in Congress. I think he has a shot.
Lynch is hardly known
Lynch is hardly known outside his district, and has never had a tough re-election fight. Martha Coakley is better known with a statewide office, and a far more attractive TV persona. Joe Kennedy and Marty Meehan have much higher profiles too. They all have considerable baggage: Lynch for Iraq, Coakley for Fells Acres, Kennedy for Chavez, and Meehan for term limits, to name a few issues. Capuano is also said to be in the fray, but I put him in the same rank as Lynch - if he was never on your ballot, you don't know who he is.
Joe Kennedy starts as front runner based on name recognition if he decides to go for it, but he'll face a harsh backlash. I give the edge to Martha Coakley, even though she's not the one I'd vote for in a primary that included all of these candidates.
No doubt...
No doubt Kennedy would be the front runner but Martha Coakley? She's a well know carpet bagger, jumping from town to town to run for various offices that she hasn't all won. Lynch has never lost a race and from what I hear is a dogged campaigner and he's already got $1 million+ head start on cash. Coakley may have a statewide organization and deep support from women's groups but in the end, I still maintain the unions and elderly call the shots in December. With labor behind Lynch, I wouldn't rule him out.
Carpetbagger?
How'd she keep getting elected then?
You remember that imaginary
You remember that imaginary 8 year stint as District Attorney and that imaginary election when she became Attorney General right?
It was all an elaborate hoax...
The other possibility is she lived somewhere as a child, went to college and then got a job. All in different towns!
Carpet bagging was a North to South thing but many people allow it's usage if someone changes states (Hillary Clinton for her Senate run) or if it is blatant. With Martha Coakley it appears like she just moved a few times. I am a life long resident of my town but do not hold it against those who move in as long as they respect the local culture. A politician should not have to live in the same place for their whole lives to be seen as legitimate.
She lost...
She lost to Rep. Marty Walsh in the mid 90s when she dragged the carpet to Dorchester to run for an open House seat (notice how she doesn't mention that in her bio). When she lost she left and went back to Middlesex County to run for DA. You know the rest of the story. Maybe the word isn't carpet bagger, but you get my point. I didn't say she's not a capable and well calculating politician. That probably won't hurt in the end her but when you start running for Senate months before Teddy is gone and your past moves show that running for office is more about you than the people you intend to represent, I have a hard time voting for you. I know it's naive to think that there are some pols out there who don't run for themselves, but I'm still holding out hope.
If Lynch wants the union vote this go round
he's going to have to vote in favor of health care reform and from what I heard at the town hall meeting in Milton, he will not vote for health care reform.
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What HC bill?
From what I hear, Lynch was clear that he hasn't decided on a bill that hasn't been submitted. If our Congress votes on a bill they don't read, they're operating with the same negligence as the Iraq War resolution, the Patriot Act, TARP, etc. Something that we as a country we outraged to find out. Given the magnatude of this issue, I don't blaim him for waiting. As a devout Catholic, I bet he will vote for HC in the end. But I don't think it hurts him that he hasn't layed in traffic for the Administration w/o a bill. Plus, the only union protesting pre-HC bill is SEIU, who are odd bunch, the misfits of labor. There hasn't been an official bill submitted to to Congress yet and they're out protesting. Weird.
What HC bill? HR 3200 or
the HELP commottee bill chaired by Ted Kennedy.
Lynch carried HR 3200 to the meeting an said he spent the summer reading it. He said that when he had a question about something he read, he'd call a person in government who knew the details of whatever issue was in question. He "said" he had not yet made up his mind but I am one of many people who attended who heard what he declared and listened to what he said. He said he was afraid that this bill would not deliver on its promises. With all the detailed study he's done, what's going to change that? Nothing.
One union rep said 'You say you don't know how you're going to vote on health care reform but I do.' I couldn't agree more. He knows he just no saying. Same with running for Senate.
If Lynch votes no on health care reform, he can kiss elected office goodbye.
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Fair observation
Just to get up to speed. So HR 3200 is Kennedy's bill, and Sen. Baucus's Finance Committee is coming out with another. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/05/health/policy/05...
Which one is going to be the bill that's voted on in Congress?
From what I have read the House Dems want a public option and the Senate may not pass it. I support Universal Healthcare unequivocally but I want Congress to read the bill that will become law if passed and not get bullied into signing something before its vetted. Again, we went through this whole thing with Bush. Either way, Obama's got the votes. Its only whether he wants a bi-partisan bill or not. I agree with you that if Lynch doesn't support whatever the final health care bill is, his Senate campaign is doomed. Unfortunately, I doubt the current bill as it stands will be what passes. If I were a betting man, I'd say in the end Lynch will support HC reform and his campaign won't suffer.
HR 3200 is one of three
HR 3200 is one of three house bills all of which have the public plan.
The senate has two bills, the HELP passed out of Kennedy's committee which has a public plan, and a second bill coming out of senate finance by way of a 6 member subgroup - 3 Rep. 3 Dem - including Sen. Max Baucus. They have not been in favor of the public plan but the White House has been in negotiation with Sen. Snowe about terms for including one. The WH does not think the HELP bill can overcome a cloture vote to end debate, requiring 60 votes but it has enough votes to pass if it can get passed filibuster. Until recently the White House wanted Republic participation in crafting the bill but it's pretty clear that they want to kill it despite claiming support.
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Fair enough
Yeah the GOP thinks they've done a number of the Democrats and the Adminsitration in the hopes of regaining some seats next year. Whatever the bill looks like, HC reform will get passed. And as the economy starts to come back (I bet at the worst time for the GOP next year)Democrats will be poised to gain more seats next year, and the 'Party of No' becoming more regional and further dominated by the right wing. Looking forward to see what the verdict will be on HC. In the end, I think HC reform gets passed, Lynch votes for it and the race for Senate goes on.
Lynch's campaign Web site goes for the minimalist approach
Take a look.
Then look at the page source
And be disturbed that it took javascript and stylesheets to get that line of text up.
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*
http://1smootshort.blogspot.com
Oh snap, I can't vote for
Oh snap, I can't vote for someone who ,within hours of announcing he is running for a seat that was just opened less then a week ago, who used the wrong tools to get some text up on a website.
I would NEVER vote for him for many reasons but feel it is petty to be taking cheap shots at his website until he has a chance to actually build one.
An observation, not a cheap shot
Compare it to Martha Coakley's site. Then look at the source code and follow the URL you'll find embedded there - to a campaign consulting site, i.e., to a company that really should know better.
Yeah
Yeah that's just brutal.
Coakley and the frozen four
David Guarino explains why she stands a good shot against any of the four current and former congressmen who might run for Senate if Joe Kennedy doesn't.
Lynch replacing the "Liberal Lion" ?
I have my doubts. If the feeling amongst the electorate is for someone to follow in Ted Kennedy's footsteps then Lynch is wearing the wrong sized shoe. Union backing might be crucial for getting out the vote in the urban part of his district. If I remember correctly, that urban vote was the deciding factor in the special election to replace Joe Moakley which first sent him to Congress. Once again, if I remember correctly, the more liberal candidates--Cheryl Jacques & Brian Joyce -- bested him in the suburban parts of the 9th in that primary. He has run unopposed ever since so never really been tested.
I'm a constituent. Late last week & for three days this week, I would come home to find my Caller ID log replete with two numbers: one from from a Stephen F. Lynch & the other from "Mass. Citizens for Life," both in the 617 area code. I don't know any Lynches & figured it was some sort of spoofing robo call while I assumed that the MCFL was just another non-profit doing fundraising, but the odd thing is that the 2 different calls would occur within minutes of each other. When I was finally home to pick up, I discovered the first call was a pre-recorded message from Lynch informing me of the town hall meeting at Curry College. The MCFL call was also about the town hall, urging me to attend & lend my voice to "make sure no healthcare bill covering abortion" was passed. They even said I could "press 1" to connect to Lynch's office for details about the Curry College town hall. I'm pro-choice, so MCFL must have been dialing constituents regardless of their position. Whatever, it brought home to me just how "un-Kennedy" a candidate Lynch will be for the Senate and I'm not convinced that's what the state at large will be looking for.
And at the risk of being accused of "lookism," I wonder how the "greasy kid's stuff" look and strong South Boston inflection will play statewide as well...
"Never write if you can speak; never speak if you can nod; never nod if you can wink"-- and the Eliot Spitzer codicil -- "never put it in e-mail."
Welcome to UHUB.
The hazing ritual is Saturday night at Franklin. Be there or b square.
Just kidding.
Thanks for writing about Lynch's and the anti-abortion robo calls. I wonder if Lynch gave then his call list.
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Thanks for the welcome,
"Never write if you can speak; never speak if you can nod; never nod if you can wink"-- and the Eliot Spitzer codicil -- "never put it in e-mail."
Anonymous. Since I am subjecting my liver to a holiday weekend hazing ritual already, I'm relieved to hear there isn't another one on the horizon.
Not sure
I'm not sure what the last line in your post refers to. Do you mean there is a connection between Lynch and MCFL? Like most interest groups, I'm sure the MCFL does robocalls when issues and/or come up that they believe they can influence. District 9 is a heavy Catholic district. The South Shore and Milton (where Curry College is located)in particular has the largest % per capita of Irish Catholics in the country. I'm pretty sure Lynch is a bit smarter than to have a lightning rod group do is shilling, but who knows. But my experience with robocalls is that they can connect you to anyone they want. I was getting them when the cigarette tax was up last year and they were directing me to my State Rep and Senator's office. I'm sure that wasn't at their behest. If you're a one issue voter on the choice issue, then Lynch won't get your vote anyway. But he is far from a demagogue on that issue. On the flip side, plenty of pro-life Catholics in Ohio and Pennsylvania voted for Obama b/c of his passion for social and economic justice. Will the same happen for Lynch with progressives in MA? I don't know. But do you really dislike the guy because he's from South Boston? I've met some good people from there and Joe Moakley was an incredible guy. Either way, if Joe Kennedy runs, I think he's got it but I'll enjoy this conversation nonetheless.
No, I'm not a single issue voter,
nor do I have anything against Southie or Southie politicians. If I left that impression, then my bad. I was just speculating how Lynch might strike voters in other parts of the state who know nothing about him and see & hear him for the first time-- especially since Boston politicians in general don't have an easy time of it when they run state-wide. And it's precisely because Lynch isn't a demagogue on abortion that I was surprised by what I perceived as MCFL's piggybacking. I didn't mean to imply that there was some sort of overt coordination (though I would be surprised if the Lynch campaign hadn't been aware of the calls). I was just struck by the coincidence & how it might color him, even pigeonhole him to the exclusion of his positions on other issues in voters' minds scant days before he took out nomination papers. He certainly has a knack for winning special elections, though. If this is a crowded field, which it could fast become if Joe Kennedy demurs, anything can happen. Whatever, I feel Lynch's challenge will be to appeal to a broader spectrum of voters than those in vote rich parts of his district.
For my part, policy differences aside, I've found him to be an attentive representative & his office to be responsive & effective. His & Kennedy's staff were extremely helpful when I applied to renew my passport and inexplicably found myself on the receiving end of threatening letters from ICE maintaining I was an illegal alien, while his office quickly resolved a bureaucratic logjam at the VA which effected my father.
"Never write if you can speak; never speak if you can nod; never nod if you can wink"-- and the Eliot Spitzer codicil -- "never put it in e-mail."
I think people are putting
I think people are putting too much emphasis on the fact that it was the "liberal lion" or the "Kennedy" seat. Sure an anti abortion candidate will have a hard time winning the seat but that is not because it was Ted Kennedy's seat and he was pro choice. Rather it will be because the people in MA tend to be pro choice.
As for lookisms The Kennedy's seemed to do well statewide despite a their obvious connections to some Boston neighberhoods even before those areas were cool.
Lunchpail Democrat vs. Limousine Liberals
Don't count Steve Lynch out. He beat an incumbent, then Bulger's kid before all of the scandals broke, then some heavy oppo in the Congress race.